Job fears for Falkirk as COVID-19 economic report states it will be one of Scotland's hardest hit areas

A new report claims over two thirds of people employed in the Falkirk area will face a “moderate” to “severe” impact due to the coronavirus crisis over the next two years.
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The independent think tank Social Market Foundation (SMF) has published a report entitled Levelling Down: the medium term local economic impact of coronavirus.

It analyses which industries, places and groups face the greatest economic risk over the medium-term period, 2020 to 2023, as a result of coronavirus.

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In the report it states Falkirk could potentially be the third worst hit area in Scotland with 67 per cent of its jobs falling into the employment categories at moderate or severe risk due to the COVID-19 lockdown.

Jobs in the construction industry are at severe risk according to the new report on the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdownJobs in the construction industry are at severe risk according to the new report on the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown
Jobs in the construction industry are at severe risk according to the new report on the economic impact of the COVID-19 lockdown

Falkirk comes after West Lothian (71 per cent) and Orkney (68 per cent) and before Glasgow (65 per cent) and North Lanarkshire (65 per cent).

The least affected areas are South Ayrshire on 57 per cent, with the Western Isles, Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire on 58 per cent.

According to the report workers in the construction industry and the banking, finance and insurance sectors are at severe risk, while those employed in distribution, hotels and restaurants, transport, communication and manufacturing will be at moderate risk.

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The report states: “Forecasts predict unemployment in the UK will more than double from 3.8 per cent in 2019 to 7.9 per cent in 2020. This represents an increase in unemployment of nearly 1.5 million workers.

“The reality of the economic disruption is rarely simple – different sectors will face different levels of disruption and workers employed in those sectors are unevenly distributed by geography and demography.

“Consequently, some locations and some groups of people face much greater economic risks than others.”

Those employed in public administration, education and health, along with those working in the energy sector and agriculture, will face a minimum impact.

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The SMF report predicts the UK will face a “sluggish” recovery after the severe economic impact of lockdown with more than two-thirds of UK jobs being in sectors now facing moderate or severe ramifications from coronavirus over the next three years.

It added: “The possibility of a returning surge of coronavirus, enforced social-distancing measures and a withdrawal of the government’s fiscal response will likely exacerbate common recession-induced behaviour changes, such as reduced consumer confidence and spending.

“The consensus of recent forecasts suggests that unemployment will not recover to previous levels until after 2023.”

A Falkirk Council spokesperson said: “All areas of the UK have been adversely affected by the global pandemic. However, we are working with the UK and Scottish Governments along with local businesses to develop a robust recovery plan to mitigate the worst effects of the current global economic crisis.

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“We are currently gathering information from local business to establish the real time effects of this crisis on our area. This research is taking place throughout July and will inform our finalised economic recovery plan which we hope to publish in August.

“Early engagement with local businesses has been positive with most businesses fully prepared to return to work as soon as it is safe to do so. Several High Street shops are now opening and our tourism businesses, construction and other businesses gearing up as well.

“We will continue to keep contact with business to understand and respond to the issues they raise.”

Central Scotland Conservative MSP Alison Harris added: “This is a very concerning report showing the severe impact the Covid-19 pandemic could have on jobs in the Falkirk area.“As we ease lockdown restrictions, we must see the SNP Government be bold and ambitious in their plans to support jobs and create new opportunities in the weeks and months ahead.“The SNP Government need to stop their calls for Westminster to do more and instead use the economic powers they already have at their disposal. The UK Government have stepped and provided over £10 billion worth of support to Scotland during this pandemic.“No area can be left behind as we rebuild our economy which has faced an unprecedented crisis. Falkirk has a whole host of important industries and attractions which are vital to the success of the local economy.”

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